IMF | CCAMTAC

Workshop on Financial Programming and Policies” (September 25 – 29, 2023).

Under the macroeconomic frameworks work program of the Institute for Capacity Development (ICD), CCAMTAC, the Joint Vienna Institute (JVI), and the IMF Resident Representative Office in Uzbekistan jointly delivered a pilot national workshop on Financial Programming and Policies in Tashkent, Uzbekistan. During the one-week workshop 29 officials from selected public institutions of the country were actively engaged in the discussions and learned how to analyze and make projections for key macroeconomic indicators using the IMF-ICD’s Comprehensive Adaptive Expectations Model (CAEM) with actual Uzbekistan data. Participants had lectures and group works in which they prepared final presentations with a medium-term outlook for Uzbekistan over 2023-24. In their final presentations, they identified macro imbalances, analyzed the impact of shocks, and made some policy suggestions to increase long-term growth. The workshop also benefited from a presentation of a new FPP forecasting tool by a representative from the macro-forecasting unit of the Ministry of Economy and Finance, which underlined and created awareness of the day-to-day operational importance of FPP models.

Uzbekistan: Macroeconomic Frameworks (11 September – 22 September, 2023) .
The mission concluded a three-year Institute for Capacity Development-led CD project to the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MOEF; formerly Ministry of Economic Development and Poverty Reduction, MEDPR; and Ministry of Finance). The mission worked together with the macroeconomic team and handed over the last version of the macroeconomic programming framework; documentation and manuals; and closing presentation. The mission team also met with senior officials from the Ministry to discuss priorities for ensuring that the newly developed capacity is consolidated and adequately integrated within the new organization. In preparation for the final presentation, the core team ran a shadow forecast exercise during which they updated the framework and macroeconomic outlook. The exercise demonstrated that the key staff could operate the framework independently and competently. 

Macroeconomic frameworks (November 28 – December 2, 2022).

A technical assistance (TA) team finalized a scoping mission to the Ministry of Finance. The mission took stock of existing forecasting apparatus, resources, and processes used in formulating national budgets, fiscal strategies and medium-term expenditure frameworks by the Macroeconomic and Fiscal Analysis Department (MFD). The mission also ascertained the data and training needs for the MFD’s core team. Jointly with a parallel IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD) mission, the mission also delivered a proof-of-concept of an integrated macro-fiscal projection model. The macroeconomic model was drafted in the style of Institute for Capacity Development’s (ICD) Excel-based Comprehensive Adaptive Expectation Model. The macroeconomic model was integrated with the Excel-based fiscal model that was developed through earlier FAD’s TA since 2021.

Enhancing Modelling Capabilities (October 17 – 27, 2022).

The mission finalized the Macroeconomic Projection Tool and started preparing for its handover to the Ministry of Economic Development and Poverty Reduction for operations in 2023. The mission completed a policy target tracker; delivered draft documentation and operational manuals; trained the Forecasting team for 2023; and prepared the Forecasting and Data Tracking Calendar for the 2023 projection round.

Macroeconomic Frameworks (October 3 – 14, 2022).

Upon the Ministry of Finance’s request for technical assistance (TA) the mission assisted in developing a macroeconomic projection tool to complement the existing fiscal projection tool, which was provided under Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD) / CCAMTAC TA. The CCAMTAC resident advisor took stock of existing forecasting apparatus, resources and processes used in formulating national budgets, fiscal strategies and medium-term expenditure frameworks. Overall, synergies between a macroeconomic model and fiscal projection tool will maximize the operational benefits for the authorities. As a result, the authorities will gain an integrated macro-fiscal framework (with rich endogenous macro-fiscal relationships and policy feedback loops), which will give them a new capability to formulate a coherent macro-fiscal outlook, and a scenario-simulation tool.

Enhancing Modelling Capacity (June 13 –24, 2022)

The Ministry of Economic Development and Poverty Reduction now have a Macroeconomic Projection Tool (MPT) that is tested and validated in a shadow projection round. The capacity development (CD) mission continued assisting the staff of the Ministry of Economic Development and Poverty Reduction in implementing their MPT in the policy forecasting process. The mission assisted the core team with preparing a (shadow) five-year macroeconomic outlook for Uzbekistan, including assistance with the organization of a forecasting team, workflow, the current situation assessment, risk assessment, and a presentation to the First Deputy Minister. The mission made headways in strengthening authorities’ analytical skills and better macroeconomic forecasting and policy analysis that feeds into the economic policymaking process.

Enhancing Modelling Capacity (April 25 –29, 2022)

This mission was a part of a multi-year capacity development (CD) program, which started in 2019. The purpose of the one-week mission was to continue developing a pilot version of the macroeconomic framework at the Ministry of Economic Development and Poverty Reduction. The mission (i) followed up on the traction of recommendations from previous missions; (ii) completed upgrades to the FPP framework as agreed in December 2021; and (iii) prepared a tentative forecasting calendar for the shadow forecasting round 2022. The mission contributed to strengthening authorities’ analytical skills and better macroeconomic forecasting and policy analysis that feeds into the economic policymaking process.   

Enhancing Modelling Capabilities (December 13-17, 2021)

As part of a multi-year CD program that started in 2019, the mission team deployed all planned upgrades to the Pilar 1 macroeconomic framework as agreed in May 2021, strengthening authorities’ analytical skills and improving macroeconomic forecasting and policy analysis that feeds into the economic policymaking process. Together with the Ministry of Economic Development and Poverty Reduction management, IMF staff pre-scoped the pathway for the institutionalization of the macroeconomic framework. The virtual mission was also attended by participants from the Ministry of Finance, and the National Bank of Uzbekistan.

Macroeconomic framework / financial programming (FP2.0) project (March 15–19, 2021; May 10 – 14, 2021)

As part of the ongoing project, the March TA mission and the interagency core macro team discussed several amendments and additions to the authorities’ macroframework to introduce more granularity, better take account of external developments, and refine projection methods. Benefiting from the virtual delivery, a wider group of staff followed the mission meetings. The core team aims at implementing discussed changes to the macroeconomic framework. During follow-up discussions in May various refinements and extensions were introduced to the evolving Pillar 1 macroeconomic framework. Another achievement related to progress in identifying data sources and dividing responsibilities for the macro framework related data gathering process across the participating institutions.

Scoping Mission (October 31 – November 4, 2022).

While the Ministry of Finance received TA support on drafting the Medium-Term Revenue Strategy (MTRS) from the IMF FAD, the State Tax Committee requested assistance in fulfilling revenue reform associated with the strategy. The CCAMTAC advisor’s visit aimed to expand understanding of the tax committee’s reform agenda, foster associated stakeholders / development partner relationships, identify capacity development (CD) needs and, where appropriate, provide advice. Senior management of the committee explained priorities for reform, which include a continuing focus on building Large Taxpayer Office capacity, anti-corruption efforts and maximizing the potential benefits of the IT system and current challenges, emphasizing efforts to develop human capital in alignment with reform progress. Authorities expressed their interest in developing their capacity via participation in the Center’s regional workshops.

Organizational Structure (October 25 – November 10, 2021)

Since June 2018, the Government of the Republic of Uzbekistan launched an ambitious reform to modernize the tax administration, and progress with reform implementation has been encouraging. This capacity development assignment assisted the State Tax Committee in continuing the reform of the tax administration organizational structure. The focus was on the development and organization of the local tax office network. The expert also initiated discussions on the move to the establishment of a single legal tax administration entity.

Further integration of macro and fiscal models (February 28 – April 30, 2023)

Following the April 2022 TA, the mission team helped the Macroeconomic and Fiscal Analysis Department of the Ministry of Finance to enhance the fiscal spreadsheet model and develop an in-year fiscal monitoring framework. Experts also advised the authorities on issues relating to the integration between the fiscal spreadsheet model and the macroeconomic projections tool that it intends to develop.

Further integration of macro and fiscal models (February 28 – April 30, 2023).

Following the April 2022 TA, the mission team helped the Macroeconomic and Fiscal Analysis Department of the Ministry of Finance to enhance the fiscal spreadsheet model and develop an in-year fiscal monitoring framework. Experts also advised the authorities on issues relating to the integration between the fiscal spreadsheet model and the macroeconomic projections tool that it intends to develop.

Macro-Fiscal Capacity Building (November 28 – December 12, 2022).

The purpose of the hybrid mission was to assist the Ministry of Finance to enhance its fiscal spreadsheet model for supporting macro-fiscal analysis. Following the April 2022 TA, the mission team helped the ministry’s Macroeconomic and Fiscal Analysis Department to enhance the fiscal spreadsheet model and develop the in-year fiscal monitoring framework. Experts also advised the authorities on issues relating to the integration between the fiscal spreadsheet model and the macroeconomic projections tool that it intends to develop.

SOE Fiscal Risks Assessment (January 11-28, 2022)

Building on the July 2021 FAD mission, which conducted a preliminary risk assessment of the largest state-owned enterprises (SOEs), the short-term expert continued to work with the Ministry of Finance’s Macroeconomic and Fiscal Analysis Department (MFD) to assess fiscal risks related to SOEs. Building on preliminary analysis conducted during the mission in July 2021, the expert undertook a more in-depth analysis of relevant SOEs, helped to build capacity within the MFD to conduct SOE financial vulnerability assessments, and provide guidance on reporting and disclosing SOE related fiscal risks. In particular, the mission aimed to strengthen capacity within the Ministry to undertake ex-ante risk assessments of SOEs to inform decision making, aid control frameworks, and improve disclosure of SOE fiscal risks.

Strengthening Macro-fiscal Capacity and Fiscal Risk Analysis (November 15 – December 17, 2021)

The Ministry of Finance has emphasized strengthening its macro-fiscal analytical capabilities and tools, supported by IMF CD. In line with earlier FAD advice, it established the Macroeconomic and Fiscal Analysis Department (MFD) in 2020. During the mission, a short-term expert has been working with the MFD to help strengthen macro-fiscal analytical capacities. In particular, he has been helping develop a macro-fiscal spreadsheet-based model to help support analysis of macro-fiscal risks; the robustness of fiscal forecasts used as the basis for budget preparation; and, of various fiscal options to implementing the authorities’ proposed fiscal rules. This will help contribute to better designed and more credible fiscal policy and forecasts as well as improved capacity to analyze macro-fiscal risks.

Strengthening Fiscal Risks Management (July 19 - August 9, 2021)

CCAMTAC’s PFM advisor has participated in an IMF headquarters-led assignment to advise the authorities on the management of fiscal risks, with a focus on the fiscal risks of public-private partnerships (PPPs), SOEs, and loans and guarantees. Included in this assignment was training on the IMF's fiscal risks assessment tools, including the PPP Fiscal Risks Assessment Model (PFRAM), the SOE Health Check Tool, and the Discrete Guarantee and Loan Assessment Tool.

Public Financial Management (April 7-26, 2021)

An expert supported the annual budget preparation process. Building on significant progress in recent years to strengthen the PFM system, including expanded budget coverage, improved fiscal reporting, and enhanced accountability with the establishment of the State Budget Law, an expert supported the annual budget preparation process for the 2022 budget cycle and the preparation of the Fiscal Strategy Paper. The expert reviewed the budget instructions, that are being issued for the first time, in accordance with revised budget procedures and the new budget calendar. The expert also discussed the content and structure of the Fiscal Strategy Paper (FSP).

REPO market development (April 3 – 28, 2023).

The hybrid mission assisted the Central Bank of Uzbekistan in its efforts to develop the interbank repo market. The mission provided a diagnostic of the current repo framework, discussed main findings and recommendations to deepen this segment of the money market. Recommendations overall are grouped: (i) to improve overall repo framework; (ii) to revise and draft legislation related to repo, and (iii) to strengthen trading and settlement. During the mission the CBU already introduced some of recommendations to facilitate repo transactions.

Enhancing Monetary Policy Communication (December 12 – 21, 2022).

The IMF HQ-led mission performed a comprehensive assessment of the Central Bank’s communications and provided actionable recommendations focused on three areas: (i) framework and organization, (ii) monetary policy, and (iii) financial stability. The mission team presented their findings and recommendations to Deputy Chairman Bekhzod Hamraev and department directors of the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, who were all highly appreciative of the mission. The Deputy Chairman assured a prompt implementation of the recommendations and expressed strong interest in follow-up IMF missions on communications.

Enhancing Reserve Requirements (July 25 – August 1, 2022)

The virtual mission reviewed the Central Bank of Uzbekistan’s (CBU) reserve requirements framework to improve its effectiveness as a monetary policy instrument as well as a tool that can serve prudential objectives. Experts reviewed the set-up and legislation related to the reserve requirements, determined the ways to enhance the effectiveness of the reserve requirements framework to meet its objectives, and made recommendations to address certain impediments.

Strengthening Monetary Policy Transmission (December 1-20, 2021)

The Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU) has made remarkable progress in reforming the monetary policy frameworks, implementing recommendations made during past missions in monetary and foreign exchange operations. The CBU sets the objective of adopting inflation targeting in the medium term. To assist with this goal, the virtual mission evaluated and advised the CBU on improving the operational framework of monetary policy to support the authorities in strengthening monetary policy transmission. The IMF staff assessed CBU’s monetary policy operations and determined the factors that prevent an effective transmission of changes to the key policy rate and other instruments to lending and deposit rates and impacting inflation, as well as on developing a set of recommendations to address those impediments. 

Ensuring Consistencies between GFS and PSDS (November 7 – 18, 2022).

This combined in-person TA and training mission on government finance statistics (GFS) and public sector debt statistics (PSDS): (i) reviewed the GFS metadata and the annual report for 2021 and advised on enhancing their comprehensiveness and quality; (ii) assisted the PSDS compilers in completing stock-flow adjustments in loans and debt securities for 2021 generated from the Debt Management and Financial Analysis System, and (iii) provided recommendations on improving the Central Government Debt time series. The mission also delivered a two-day GFS / PSDS workshop for 23 participants – officials from the Ministry of Finance, Central Bank, State Statistical Committee, Treasury, and trainers from the Institute of Fiscal Studies, and Ministry of Finance’s Training Center – and devoted a substantial time to hands-on training for the new GFS compiler. The training segment of the mission was highly appreciated by the authorities. This capacity development activity was performed as a joint capacity development activity of CCAMTAC and the Data for Decision (D4D) fund.

Building Capacity in Public Sector Debt Statistics (PSDS) (October 25 – November 5, 2021)

Uzbekistan has benefited in past years from TA, provided by the IMF Statistics Department (STA) in close cooperation with the FAD, to improve fiscal reporting. This mission was focusing on PSDS and provided tailored hands-on technical training to staff from the Domestic and External Public Debt Department (DEPDD) of the Ministry of Finance of Uzbekistan. These training sessions were combined with TA to increase the capacity, methodological knowledge, and technical skills in the practical compilation of data following the international statistical concepts and definitions described in the PSDS 2011 Guide. The TA team helped to identify differences between PSDS, based on the national definitions, and those in the Guide, and assisted the DEPDD in developing their plans to compile PSDS, which are compliant with the international statistical standards.

National Accounts mission (December 4 – 8, 2023).
The main topic addressed was the review of all newly redesigned data collection forms for short-term and structural business statistics. Secondary assistance was provided on compiling indicators from discrete source data, in order to fulfill the requirements for joining the IMF’s Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS). Practical training on compiling estimates for consumption of fixed capital (CFC) was also provided.

Improving Source Data (May 22 – 26, 2023).

The TA mission reviewed accuracy of source data for the compilation of annual and quarterly GDP. Improvements were suggested to statistical forms and data collection methods for GDP by activity. The mission recommended more sound techniques for compiling trade margin volume measures. The mission also reviewed the compilation of Industrial Production Index (IPI)and provided recommendations for further improvements.

Price Statistics (February 13 – 17, 2023).

The primary objective of the remote mission was to continue assisting the SA with improving current PPI methods and expanding index coverage. Key mission outcomes included: (i) assessing progress to date in implementing recommendations for improvement made during the previous mission; (ii) clarifying methods to include small establishments; (iii) discussing compilation issues with the experimental PPI for agriculture; (iv) identifying methods for compiling a PPI for construction; and (v) addressing PPI compilation issues noted by the authorities.

National Accounts (February 6 – 17, 2023)

The mission assisted the Agency on Statistics under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan (SA) in developing the annual supply and use tables (SUT) and improving estimates for the non-observed economy (NOE). The mission recommended that the SA conducts surveys on NOE for specific services such as trade, transport, education, healthcare, and other professional services. The SA plans to compile the SUT for 2021 at both current and constant prices.

National Accounts (November 28 – December 2, 2022). The remote TA mission assisted the State Committee on Statistics in developing the monthly industrial production index (IPI) on a discrete basis. The CCAMTAC resident advisor reviewed the current practice of compiling the monthly IPI and helped to compile experimental estimates of the 2022 monthly IPI by applying the 2021 weights. Authorities plan to start disseminating discrete time series of IPI in March 2023.

Uzbekistan: Compilation of Consumer Price Index sub-indices (May 9 – 13, 2022)

The mission assisted the State Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics (SSC) in improving the methodology used for the compilation of consumer price index (CPI) sub-indices for housing, mobile telecommunications, flights and online shopping. Progress was also evaluated on recommendations made in earlier missions, including compilation of regional weights, and the coverage of online prices.

Enhancing Price Statistics (November 29 – December 3, 2021)

Following a wider TA mission on CPI in October 2021, this was the first TA mission on RPPI to the Central Statistics Committee (CSS). The mission reviewed the availability of source data, provided guidance on the different methods for compiling, and discussed the next steps for the preparation of an RPPI for Uzbekistan, including frequency. A reliable official RPPI for Uzbekistan is expected to facilitate the assessment of developments and risks in property markets. Similarly, providing policymakers with a deeper understanding of the linkages between property markets, the real economy and financial sector stability.

National Accounts (December 20-24, 2021)

The State Committee on Statistics (SCS) has made good progress since the September 2021 TA mission on QNA. During the latest TA support, quarterly GDP estimates were compiled on a discrete basis, the new estimates of the balance of payments were included in the national accounts, time series of national accounts are revised following the System of National Accounts (SNA) 2008 standards and adjusted by applying benchmarks and seasonal adjustment methods. Discrete time series of quarterly GDP and the monthly industrial production index (IPI) are now compiled and will be disseminated beginning in February 2022.

Price Statistics (October 11 – 15, 2021)

A remote CCAMTAC TA mission assessed progress made by the Central Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan in implementing improvements to the CPI-based on the December 2020 mission recommendations. The current mission is focused on guiding the development of regional weights. The Statistics Committee updates the weights of the CPI each January mainly based on the results of a continuous household budget survey (HBS). The HBS is using tablets to record household expenditure data starting in 2021. The new technology will enable the CPI team to calculate detailed product weights from the HBS data. The mission provided training on methods to calculate national and regional weights. 

National Accounts (September 27- October 1, 2021)

The State Committee on Statistics of the Republic of Uzbekistan has made good progress since the May 2021 TA mission. This activity assisted the Committee in developing quarterly national accounts on a discrete basis in accordance with the requirements of the Special Data Dissemination Standard. The mission reviewed the monthly data related to large enterprises collected by the Committee and made recommendations for further improvement of discrete quarterly data. The Committee plans to complete the compilation of discrete quarterly GDP estimates in December 2021.

Price Statistics (July 12-16, 2021)

A remote CCAMTAC technical assistance mission assisted the SCS in updating and expanding the producer price index (PPI). The mission reviewed progress with developing the PPI in agriculture and construction and developed a detailed work plan to guide the authorities on the way forward.

Real Sector Statistics (March 1-19, 2021; March 15-19, 2021; May 17-28, 2021)

Multi-topic. A remote multi-topic statistics diagnostic mission from the Statistics Department (STA) (i) assessed the collection, compilation, and dissemination practices for the datasets covered by the mission; (ii) identified key high-level priorities and developed a medium-term plan for statistical improvement and the associated capacity development (CD) needs; and (iii) developed a roadmap for subscription to the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS). CCAMTAC will in the future help to follow-up.

Price Statistics. CCAMTAC assisted the State Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics (SCS) with the development of hybrid export and import price indices (XMPIs). The expert provided a strategic framework for developing hybrid XMPIs and made practical recommendations on the adaptation of survey sampling and price collection for XMPIs. The expert also reviewed the treatment of missing values, quality adjustment, and index number methodology.

National Accounts. CCAMTAC assisted the State Statistics Committee of Uzbekistan in: i) developing discrete estimates of quarterly national accounts; and ii) improving GDP by expenditure estimates.