IMF | CCAMTAC

Macroeconomic Frameworks (June 10–14, 2024). This IMF Institute for Capacity Development (ICD)–led mission focused on developing the real sector block, combining training sessions and hands–on workshops to support the core group in analyzing key macro indicators within a larger context of the Comprehensive Adaptive Expectations Model. Beyond methodologies and CAEM development, the team discussed the authorities' vision for institutionalizing the tool and addressed possible legal considerations.

Macroeconomic Frameworks (March 3–7, 2024). Following the November 2023 scoping mission to the Ministry of National Economy (MNE) of the Republic of Kazakhstan, this was the first engagement of the medium-term project. Based on the earlier stocktaking, the team focused on data inputs and the design of the forecasting tool. The mission discussed the roles of the core group, helped set up an information sharing system, and advised on compiling input data for the Comprehensive Adaptive Expectations Model (CAEM) from the IMF’s Institute for Capacity Development. To embed the model in the future in the policy process, the team also made presentations on the role of forecasting in the policy process, how to diagnose and forecast macroeconomic and fiscal variables in the tool, and demonstrated how the framework can be used for diagnostics and scenario analysis. To complement the TA delivery, a training schedule was also discussed.

Reviewing Forecasting Performance of Quarterly Projection Model (November 29 – December 8, 2023).
The mission aimed to enhance the forecasting accuracy of the National Bank of Kazakhstan’s central quarterly projection tool. This mission helped the forecasting team re-calibrate long-term policy targets to align with new values set by the government; segmenting the headline Consumer Price Index into administrative and non-administrative components; and strengthening the forecasting team’s capabilities through knowledge exchange and experience sharing.

Enhancing Modeling and Analytical Capabilities (November 13 – 17, 2023).
This hybrid scoping mission met with the Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan.  The objective was to assess the requirements, capabilities, and context for developing institutional macroeconomic forecasting at the Ministry. The plan aims at helping the Ministry to improve its Forecasting and Policy Analysis System, including the design of a macroeconomic projection tool  to underpin macro-fiscal planning in Kazakhstan.  

Course on Financial Programing and Policies - Macro-Foundation Tool (December 6 – 10, 2021)

The mission team delivered a hands-on training on the use of a new macro-foundation tool for forecasting and policy simulations in the context of IMF’s financial programming framework. The training was well attended by participants from the Economic Research Institute, Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Finance, and the National Bank of Kazakhstan.

Quarterly Projection Model - Re-calibration (October 25 – November 5, 2021)

The CCAMTAC regional advisor together with a short-term expert has reviewed the forecasting performance of the core quarterly projection model of the National Bank of Kazakhstan and assisted in re-calibrating it. The team discussed the transmission mechanism of major economic shocks, dominating the baseline forecast over the past two years, to help improve the baseline forecast story. The mission also identified priorities for further extensions to the projection model and further strengthening of the National Bank’s Forecasting and Policy Analysis System.

Professional Attachment – Sharing Regional Tax Administration Experience (July 24 – 28, 2023)

At the request of the State Revenue Committee (SRC) of Kazakhstan, an expert from the Revenue Analysis Department of the Revenue Service of Georgia (GRS) joined a CCAMTAC CD support activity for five days from July 24, to share the Georgian experience of implementing a compliance risk management framework and to build regional expertise. It was arranged in anticipation of an attachment by SRC officials to GRS and an OECD tax administration (to be determined) to learn more about the implementation of CRM disciplines.

Strengthening Compliance Risk Management (July 17 – August 4, 2023).

Building on interest from an earlier regional workshop activity (Understanding Compliance Risk Management, CCAMTAC Almaty, January 31 - February 2, 2023) and current demands for a new Tax Code for Kazakhstan, the State Revenue Committee (SRC) requested capacity development (CD) support for the implementation of a compliance risk management (CRM) framework across the administration. A visit by CRM and audit experts commenced with a three-day training event for relevant managers, followed by further discussions and guidance for risk management and audit officials. Meetings were held with key stakeholders including representatives from the Supreme Court, the Prosecutor General’s Office, and the Agency for Financial Monitoring. Separate presentations on the importance of CRM for revenue mobilization were made to members of the New Tax Code Working Group. SRC has agreed that CD support will be ongoing in this area. The next expert visit is scheduled for November 2023

Capacity Development Planning Visit (June 19 – 26, 2023).

A combined IMF Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD)/CCAMTAC assignment on tax administration visited Astana to discuss with the management of the State Revenue Committee (SRC) tax administration reform priorities and scope for IMF CD support going forward. The team provided high-level guidance on select reform areas and successfully agreed a CD plan with SRC management that is anticipated to become a flagship for our revenue administration CD support in the region. The first engagement started in July 2023. At the end of assignment, the team visited the CCAMTAC office in Almaty.

Tax Administration Diagnostic Assessment Tool (TADAT) (February 6 – 21, 2023)

A joint TADAT mission to the State Revenue Committee (SRC) of the Republic of Kazakhstan was conducted by the World Bank, Asian Development Bank (ADB) and IMF CCAMTAC. In the course of this assessment, SRC officials requested the CCAMTAC advisor to make a presentation on compliance risk management (CRM) following on a recent CCAMTAC regional workshop on this topic held from January 30 to February 1, 2023, in Almaty. The significance of tax gap analysis environmental scans, risk registers and compliance improvement plans supporting the effective identification, prioritization, and treatment of compliance risks were further explained.

Fiscal Risks Management (May 20–31, 2024). The mission supported the Ministry of National Economy (MNE) in strengthening the Fiscal Risk Statement (FRS) for State–Owned Enterprises (SOEs) and Public–Private Partnerships (PPPs) to better inform fiscal decisions, improve coordination of the fiscal risk function, and build staff capacity. Mission outputs included: (i) individual and portfolio fiscal risk analyses of the 11 largest non–financial SOEs, using the IMF SOE Health Check Tool (HCT); (ii) fiscal risk analyses of the 10 largest PPP projects and a proposed chapter outline for the FRS; and (iii) a full set of training materials.

Fiscal Transparency Follow Up (October 9-13, 2023).
The mission assisted the authorities in developing a draft action plan and capacity-building roadmap to support the implementation of the main recommendations from the Fiscal Transparency Evaluation, which was conducted by the IMF FAD in January 2023. Prioritization of reform efforts focused on sectorization of the public sector according to GFSM 2014 methodology, classification of fiscal reporting and transparency around natural resource revenues.

Review of the Draft 2023 Fiscal Risks Statement (June 26 – July 7, 2023).

At the request of the Ministry of National Economy (MoNE), a virtual mission in June 2023, supported by the Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD) and CCAMTAC, assisted the authorities in producing the second edition of their Fiscal Risk Statement (FRS). Kazakhstan published its first Fiscal Risks Statement (FRS) and Long-Term Fiscal Sustainability Statement (LTFS) in September 2022, mainly focusing on macroeconomic fiscal risks, with СВ support by FAD and CCAMTAC. As decided in the authorities’ roadmap for gradually enhancing the FRS, the September 2023 edition will cover fiscal risks from the Quasi-Public Sector (QPS) and the financial sector. Two previous short-term expert (STX) missions conducted in February and April 2023 provided guidance on data sources and methodologies concerning these risks. Since these visits, the authorities have been drafting the second edition of the FRS. This mission reviewed the relevant draft chapters of the FRS and provided comments on the authorities’ document. The recommendations of the mission were also discussed with the authorities in a virtual meeting held in July 2023. 

Enhancing the Fiscal Risk Statement (February 7 – 17, 2023)

An in-person mission to the Ministry of National Economy (MoNE), led by a short-term expert, assisted the authorities in enhancing their Fiscal Risks Statement (FRS) to include fiscal risks from the quasi-government entities (QGEs) sector. In line with the amendments to the Budget Code, and with earlier support from FAD and CCAMTAC, the authorities published in September 2022 their first-ever FRS, which focused on macro-economic fiscal risks. Following their workplan, the authorities now aim to expand the next edition of the FRS, due in September 2023, to cover fiscal risks from the QGEs sector. With MoNE and the Economic Research Institute (ERI), the mission in detail went through the proposed content of the FRS section on QGEs, identified information needs and sources, and drafted a template for the report. The mission also provided training on the use of the FAD’s State-Owned Enterprise Health Check Tool (SOE-HCT).

Preparation for Fiscal Transparency Evaluation (November 7 – 16, 2022).

An in-person mission to the Ministry of National Economy led by a short-term expert helped to prepare for a full Fiscal Transparency Evaluation (FTE) mission, scheduled for early 2023. The CCAMTAC resident advisor participated remotely in the opening and closing meetings. The mission's activities focused on familiarizing stakeholders with the FTE exercise, linking its data needs with data availability, and identifying the appropriate institutional organizations for each FTE dimension. The mission initiated the process for the collection of documents, data and information needed for the FTE and helped identify data gaps.

Fiscal Risks Management (June 13 – July 15, 2022)

The mission team assisted the authorities to finalize their first-ever Fiscal Risks Statement (FRS) and Long-Term Fiscal Sustainability Statement (LTFS). The Ministry of National Economy and Economic Research Institute were assisted in (i) applying their modelling capacity to develop the scenarios around the baseline; (ii) finalizing the textual characterization of scenarios of fiscal outcomes and ways of managing fiscal risks; and (iii) finalizing the baseline projections using the tool developed by and applied in the April-May 2022 training.

Long Term Fiscal Sustainability (April 15–29, 2022)

This remote workshop assisted the Ministry of National Economy and the Economic Research Institute to apply the LTFS methodology developed during the February-March 2022 mission, defining the assumptions and data sources for each of the elements of the LTFS and producing an initial set of projections for economic growth, revenue, expenditure, budget balance and gross and net debt through to 2050.

Preparing Fiscal Risks and Long-Term Fiscal Sustainability Statements (February 11 – March 8, 2022)

At the request of the Ministry of National Economy, this remote mission assisted the authorities with the initial preparations for their first-ever fiscal risks statement (FRS), intended to disclose Kazakhstan’s macroeconomic fiscal risks, to define a plan for expanding the disclosures of other fiscal risks in subsequent FRSs, as well as with the initial preparations for their first-ever Long-Term Fiscal Sustainability Statement (LTFS). The mission (i) delivered a presentation with examples of FRSs and LTFSs produced by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries; and (ii) conducted a workshop to explain technical issues underlying the analysis in the first FRS and LTFS. The intention of authorities is to publish their first FRS and LTFS as part of the documentation associated with the draft 2023 Republican Budget.

Accrual Budgeting (November 18 - December 3, 2021)

The Ministry of Finance has had a long-standing vision to implement accrual budgeting, which required several reforms. Given notable progress in producing the second set of prospective financial statements for the Republican Budget sector (PCFS) in 2021, the mission reviewed the authorities' plans, including the methodology and implementation challenges, for requiring prospective financial statements to be prepared in 2022 for 17 oblast-level (the first level of regional) governments. The approach reflects the methodology that has been applied for the preparation of republican (central) government prospective financial statements. There has been notable progress in institutionalizing the preparation of PCFS, including automation, and the authorities have renewed their commitment to improving the methodology. Some of these methodological improvements could be implemented in the first set of oblast-level prospective financial statements.

Conglomerate Supervision Remote Engagement (Capital Regulations) (May 1–31, 2024). This Technical Assistance (TA) support which was delivered remotely aimed to align the conglomerate supervision regulatory framework of the Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan for Regulation and Development of Financial Market (Agency) with the Joint Forum Principles for the supervision of financial conglomerates. The prior mission in this area was concluded in February 2024 and provided support for the development of governance, liquidity, and risk management regulations. This mission focused on the final element: the capital regulations. The mission discussed the existing framework and possible enhancements to it from a regulatory policy perspective with individuals joining from the Department of Methodology and Prudential Regulation of Financial Organizations of the Agency.

Forensic Supervision (August 3 – 5, 2022).

A three day in-person engagement with the Agency for Regulation and Development of Financial Market of the Republic of Kazakhstan was conducted focusing on the detection and prevention of market abuse and fraud. The mission was conducted in person and delivered to over 20 supervision staff from onsite, offsite and micro-finance divisions. Focus was placed on the conduct supervision and its development within the relevant regulations as well as the supervisory frameworks while contrasting regulations in different jurisdictions.

Risk-based supervision – liquidity (July 19 - Sept.3, 2021)
The Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market of the Republic of Kazakhstan (the Agency) has requested Technical Assistance (TA) to implement risk-based supervision. Three missions have been undertaken since September 2020. The purpose of this activity is to provide recommendations and targeted training on the implementation of Pillar 2 liquidity requirements. The mission assists the Agency with the development of the internal supervisory methodology for the assessment of a bank’s Internal Liquidity Adequacy Assessment Process (ILAAP), and also provides guidance on survival horizon indicators.

Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) (March 26–April 5, 2024). At the request of the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK), the CCAMTAC provided a TA mission to enhance the Emergency Liquidity Assistance framework. The mission held extensive discussions with experts from the NBK and the Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan for Regulation and Development of Financial Market. The mission: (i) reviewed the ELA legal framework, (ii) provided recommendations for the ELA operational framework and internal ELA procedures, (iii) discussed interagency coordination and communication. On each ELA key building block, the mission made presentations and sharedexperience of other countries on recent ELA cases and their operationalization. The IMF continued cooperation with the NBK on haircut setting for the ELA collateral.

Bank Survey and Forecasting for Implementing FX and Monetary Policies (September 11 – 15, 2023).
The in-person mission assisted the National Bank of Kazakhstan in deploying statistical tools to implement monetary and FX policies. During the visit, the mission team set up the tools and held several training sessions to identify the most unexpected changes in the exchange rate to serve as indicative triggers for foreign exchange intervention. To improve the calibration of the monetary operations and the reserve requirement the mission customized a liquidity forecasting tool and applied curve fitting techniques to estimate the demand for reserves. Additionally, based on the template provided to the NBK, the mission surveyed the banks, importers, and exporters for market

Monetary and Foreign Exchange Operations (January 15 - April 30, 2021)

The mission reviewed past TA, assessed TA needs, and provided the future CCAMTAC resident advisor on central banking with input for a work plan.

GFS&PSDS mission (November 6 – 17, 2023).
The mission followed up on the recommendations of the Fiscal Transparency Evaluation (FTE) conducted by the FAD in January 2023 and the GFS mission conducted in October 2022. FTE recommendations with reference to the budget code (Pillar I: Fiscal Reporting) have direct implications on the GFS compilation. The mission, together with the representatives of the Ministry of Finance and the Bureau of National Statistics, identified the financial indicators necessary for conducting market tests for the quasi-government entities. In addition, the mission reviewed the annual GFS questionnaire for 2022 and assisted the compiler in solving data issues. The authorities expressed their interest in a joint GFS / Real sector mission in autumn 2024, which would focus on the reconciliation of GFS and National Accounts.

Improving the Quality of Annual GFS (October 10 – 21, 2022).

The main purpose of the in-person mission to Astana was to further assist the authorities in developing annual GFS that strengthens economic policy analysis and supports surveillance. The short-term expert assisted the authorities in strengthening compilation and dissemination of fiscal statistics in line with the IMF Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014), including further improving source data classification and sectorization. The joint session with the overlapping National Accounts (NA) mission (conducted by the CCAMTAC Real Sector Resident Advisor) aimed to discuss issues of sectorization of units in GFS and NA and illustrated the need for close cooperation between the GFS and NA compilers.

Enhancing GFS/PSDS (November 15-26, 2021)

The purpose of this mission was to further improve fiscal and debt statistics for surveillance and dissemination and to establish a medium-term work plan on GFS and Public Sector Debt Statistics (PSDS). Officials from the Ministry of Finance, National Bank, National Bureau of Statistics, Social Security Funds, and the Problem Loans Fund, involved in GFS compilation, attended the sessions. To familiarize the new GFS team with the topic, the mission also provided short information sessions and hands-on training on (i) an overview of the GFS framework, focusing its use on data for policymaking; (ii) the need for consistency of macroeconomic statistics; and (iii) the use of the classification assistant and validation procedures. Following the mission work with the annual GFS data, the Kazakh authorities transmitted their annual GFS questionnaire to the IMF Statistics Department on December 2, 2021.

GDP mission (March 25–April 5, 2024). The mission assisted the Bureau of National Statistics (BNS) of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan in developing quarterly GDP on a discrete basis. The compilation of discrete time series of quarterly GDP by production and expenditure is complete. BNS sectoral departments are working on updating data on agriculture, industry, transport and other service sectors as input prior to publication. These changes will be automatically reflected in the published data format.

National Accounts mission (February 12–23, 2024). The mission assisted the Bureau of National Statistics (BNS) of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan in improving source data for the compilation of national accounts. The mission reviewed the questionnaires of regular statistical surveys and made several important recommendations on improving their structure. The mission also discussed other topics related to (i) extending data submission deadlines in line with international best practice, and (ii) reducing the level of details in the published monthly data.

Price Statistics mission (December 4 – 8, 2023).
The mission assisted the Bureau of National Statistics of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan (BNS) with validation of the big data sources; fiscal data contained in cash register receipts and web scraped data. This was a follow-up of the technical assistance mission to Kazakhstan held remotely in July 2022. Several analyses of the data have been conducted by the BNS’s Information and Computing center. Although the data seems promising, one major drawback is the lack of a unique identifier, e.g., universal product codes (GTINs). Classifying items by using the item text each week caused significant volatility in matched items over time and might not be consistent for use in a CPI. Developing a national catalogue with GTINs and request retailers to use these data is work in progress conducted by the Government.

National Accounts mission (November 6 – 17, 2023).
The mission assisted the Bureau of National Statistics (BNS) of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan in developing quarterly GDP on a discrete basis. The mission reviewed existing large statistical discrepancies between GDP by production (GDPP) and GDP by expenditure (GDPE) and provided recommendations for improvements. The mission and BNS staff prepared the GDP release schedule that will take effect after the release of discrete quarterly GDP in the second half of 2024.

National Accounts (April 3 – 14, 2023).

A follow up in-person TA mission assisted the BNS in continuing the development of quarterly GDP on a discrete basis. Following the previous TA mission’s recommendations, the BNS compiled uarterly estimates of GDP by production (GDPP) and expenditure (GDPE). The current mission reviewed discrepancies between GDPP and GDPE and identified their causes. A short version of the supply and use tables (SUT) at the section level of European classification of economic activities (NACE Rev.2) has been made for the first quarter of 2015 to eliminate a statistical discrepancy. The mission recommended that the BNS uses such analysis to eliminate discrepancies for other quarters as well. The BNS plans to disseminate the quarterly GDP estimates by October 2023.

National Accounts (February 20 – March 3, 2023).
An in-person mission assisted the Bureau of National Statistics (BNS) of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan in developing the discrete quarterly estimates of GDP by expenditure (GDPE). During the mission, BNS staff compiled chain-linked time series for each GDPE component by applying the annual overlap technique. The mission recommended that the BNS improves the compilation of several indicators such as cultivated biological assets, military expenditures, and price indices for deflating certain types of changes in inventories. After resolving these issues, the next step will be to reconcile the quarterly estimates of GDP by production (GDPP) and GDPE and improve the compilation of the non-observed economy.

Quarterly GDP (October 17 – 28, 2022).
The CCAMTAC advisor visited Astana to assist the Bureau of National Statistics under the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan (BNS) in the development of quarterly GDP on a discrete basis. During the meeting with management and officials the mission (i) presented international best practice of compiling volume indices to avoid an inconsistency between the month-to-month and year-to-year volume indices, (ii) reviewed the current practice of seasonal adjustment and presented the seasonal adjustment software JDemetra+, and (iii) reviewed the methods for the compilation of non-observed economy (NOE). A follow-up in-person TA mission is scheduled in January 2023.

Quarterly GDP Estimates (July 11 – 15, 2022)

Following the May 2022 technical TA mission’s recommendations, the BNS has made good progress in collecting quarterly data on GDP by expenditure components. The entity compiled discrete quarterly gross value added (GVA) at the two-digit level of the international classification of economic activities (NACE Rev.2). During the mission, these estimates were aggregated into the chain-linked time series of quarterly GDP and the preliminary results were compared against the published estimates of annual GDP. The mission also reviewed the compilation of household consumption, gross capital formation, and exports and imports of goods and services and provided recommendations for further improvement.

Modernization of the Consumer Price Index (July 7- 15, 2022)

This was a follow-up to the TA mission on scanner data held in November 2021. The BNS was assisted in continuing its modernization of the consumer price index (CPI). The mission, conducted remotely, provided extensive guidance on web scraping and hands-on support in working with the scanner data. The National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) officials also participated in the meetings related to web scraping, which they use for the compilation of core and high-frequency inflation measures, called the "Price Tracker" project.

Quarterly GDP Estimates (May 30 – June 3, 2022)

The CCAMTAC resident advisor assisted the Bureau of National Statistics (BNS) under the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan in the development of quarterly GDP on a discrete basis. The mission reviewed quarterly source data and compilation methods for each component of GDP by expenditure (GDPE) and provided recommendations for further improvements. At the same time, the BNS has made good progress in developing quarterly GDP by production (GDPP). The expert reviewed discrete quarterly estimates at the two-digit level of the International Classification of Economic Activities (NACE Rev.2) and made recommendations for further improvements.

Modernizing Price Statistics (November 8-12, 2021)

This was the first TA mission to Kazakhstan on scanner data (SD). The mission assisted the Bureau of National Statistics of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan (BNS) with continuing its modernization of the consumer price index (CPI) by developing SD. The IMF expert provided an overall view of the data collection process and requirements, the mapping of products to a national breakdown of the Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose (COICOP) 1999, and the main methods for compilation. As BNS is expecting to have access to SD through an online platform made available by the State Revenue Committee (SRC), the mission recommended the SRC introduces SD in a stepwise approach beginning with food products and a small sample of the larger retailers.

National Accounts (August 23 – September 3, 2021)

A remote TA assisted the Bureau of National Statistics under the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan in (i) developing quarterly national accounts on a discrete basis; (ii) improving financial accounts; and (iii) improving the current method for compilation of changes in inventories. The mission reviewed the current state of discrete quarterly GDP compilation and gave recommendations to improve the accuracy of the quarterly national accounts estimates. With regards to financial accounts, the mission recommended that the Bureau reduces discrepancies between the financial and non-financial accounts, which are compiled by using different data sources.